What does Brexit mean for you and real estate?
Last night’s historic vote for Britain to leave the EU is going to have some profound effects (if you are just waking and haven’t seen the news: here is a Bloomberg article). What does this mean for you and your real estate portfolio. There are going to be some short term and long term impacts. First, there are a few steps you should take right now (and some that you shouldn’t). Here are 3 things you should consider today. In the medium long term there are 3 items to consider with your real estate portfolio.
Brexit short term impact. There will be some immediate impacts this morning as a result of the vote. The most straightforward is that US treasuries will rise and yields will fall. What does this mean? Basically interest rates in the US will fall (how much is the question). Also look for there to be a ton of market volatility as people digest what this actually means.
What you should do:
- If you are refinancing or in the process of getting a mortgage, I would wait to lock (possibly later today or early next week) since this vote was not factored into the markets
- If you had any variable rate tied to libor (London interbank overnight rate) do nothing and see what happens on yields
- If you own commercial real estate, sit tight, there will continue to be a flight to quality and one highly desired quality asset is US real estate which will become even more desirable with the global uncertainty
Brexit Medium/Long Term impact: This is where everything could get interesting. I think the US market is somewhere near a peak (if you look at historical cycles and stock market appreciation) and the breakup of the EU could spell trouble for the US. The US has been bucking the global trend of slow growth, unfortunately this cannot continue (look at the latest job numbers). So here are three items to watch going forward.
- Look for the Fed to remain even more cautious with future rate increases
- Brexit will ultimately will impact US growth: as the global outlook dims many companies are going to be cautious on hiring which will ultimately trickle down to reduced consumer spending
- Banks will tighten lending standards: whenever there is uncertainty banks will err on the cautious side and ultimately tighten their lending requirements more to factor in any downside risk
Long and short this unexpected breakup of the EU is going to have far reaching impacts to the entire world and the US will not be immune to the global growth risks as a result. Hang on to your seatbelt, this is going to be a bumpy ride.
Written by Glen Weinberg, COO/ VP Fairview Commercial Lending. Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics in the Colorado Real Estate Journal, the CO Biz Magazine, The Denver Post, The Scotsman mortgage broker guide, Mortgage Professional America and various other national publications.
Fairview is a hard money lender specializing in private money loans / non-bank real estate loans in Georgia, Colorado, Illinois, and Florida. They are recognized in the industry as the leader in hard money lending with no upfront fees or any other games. Learn more about Hard Money Lending through our free Hard Money Guide. To get started on a loan all they need is their simple one page application (no upfront fees or other games).