My recession indicator flashing green: ready for bulls or bears

My recession indicator flashing green: ready for bulls or bears

Are the bulls running or are the bears coming?  Any business media you pick up is harping on the idea of a “recession watch” and the economy is basically coming to an end!  On the flip side my proprietary lending data is giving me a radically different answer.  What...
Does the stock market predict real estate prices?

Does the stock market predict real estate prices?

  For years, myself, and many others have thought that interest rates were the predictor of housing prices.  Fast forward to post COVID where interest rates have doubled and yet housing prices remain high and are still trending higher in many markets. What other...
Will mortgage rates drop anymore in 24, how about 2025?

Will mortgage rates drop anymore in 24, how about 2025?

  When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%.  At the same time economists had been predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market as the fed has cut rates.  On the other hand, the chart above...
Big real estate rebound for 2025?

Big real estate rebound for 2025?

The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, has released his 2025 and 2026 predictions for residential real estate and they were a huge surprise.  What is Yun predicting for real estate prices, interest rates, and appreciation?  How...
Is inflation now driving housing prices higher?

Is inflation now driving housing prices higher?

The conventional wisdom is that inflation causes higher interest rates which in turn causes lower housing prices.  We are now seeing an interesting phenomenon where housing prices continue to stay high and in some markets head even higher with interest rates double...
Huge increases in inventory, what does this mean for prices?

Huge increases in inventory, what does this mean for prices?

Even with falling interest rates, inventory has quickly increased. We have gone from a supposed shortage of housing to an inventory surplus in many hot markets.  Home sales in July were at the lowest recorded level.  What is driving the increase in inventory?  Will...