My recession indicator flashing green: ready for bulls or bears

My recession indicator flashing green: ready for bulls or bears

Are the bulls running or are the bears coming?  Any business media you pick up is harping on the idea of a “recession watch” and the economy is basically coming to an end!  On the flip side my proprietary lending data is giving me a radically different answer.  What...
Does the stock market predict real estate prices?

Does the stock market predict real estate prices?

  For years, myself, and many others have thought that interest rates were the predictor of housing prices.  Fast forward to post COVID where interest rates have doubled and yet housing prices remain high and are still trending higher in many markets. What other...
Upper income spending drops, what does this mean for real estate

Upper income spending drops, what does this mean for real estate

Higher income consumers are showing signs of stress.  Look at the chart above, from the peak in 2022 higher end consumers intent to spend has dropped almost 25%.  What does the chart mean for real estate and the general economy?  Why focus on higher end consumers?...
Is inflation now driving housing prices higher?

Is inflation now driving housing prices higher?

The conventional wisdom is that inflation causes higher interest rates which in turn causes lower housing prices.  We are now seeing an interesting phenomenon where housing prices continue to stay high and in some markets head even higher with interest rates double...
Who is better for real estate Harris or Trump ?

Who is better for real estate Harris or Trump ?

  Wow, it is amazing how quickly tides have changed.  Look at the chart above of the betting market on the next presidential election right after the assassination attempt. Fast forward and another twist happened over the weekend with President Biden stepping...
Warning sign? sales drop 34%, impact on real estate

Warning sign? sales drop 34%, impact on real estate

The economy is currently in a “transition” phase.  To determine if the sun is setting on our current cycle, it is critical to watch for leading indicators of where we might be heading.  One of the strongest predictors of a recession is consumer purchases of one...