2023 real estate predictions: Mortgage rates come off their highs. Does a recession happen in 23?

2023 real estate predictions: Mortgage rates come off their highs. Does a recession happen in 23?

I hope everyone is having a happy holiday season.  Before getting into my predictions for next year, there are three crucial factors to discuss that will shape the real estate market in 2023 and beyond: Interest rates, inflation, and consumer sentiment. All three are...
Year of the Bear, are you ready for 2023 and a 20% decline, what happens to interest rates, economy, etc…   

Year of the Bear, are you ready for 2023 and a 20% decline, what happens to interest rates, economy, etc…   

Since Covid it seems like traditional patterns have been broken.  I hear time and time again that X or Y is different and there have been fundamental changes. Is this true, is everything “radically” different now?  Is a bear walking around in the snow a sign (zoom in...
Consumer debt soars to the highest on record, why is this good and bad news for real estate

Consumer debt soars to the highest on record, why is this good and bad news for real estate

The federal reserve bank of NY recently published a report showing consumer debt jumping to the highest levels ever recorded with every category growing from mortgages, autos, credit cards, lines of credit, etc…  Is some consumer debt better/worse than others for the...
Will the golden handcuffs of low rates save real estate in this cycle?

Will the golden handcuffs of low rates save real estate in this cycle?

The prevailing theory is that this real estate cycle will be considerably better than others as so many people locked in rock bottom rates which will serve as “golden handcuffs” and prevent a meaningful increase in inventory.  How accurate is this theory?  What is the...
30 year fixed crosses 7%, is this the real story? Prices fall first time in 10 years.

30 year fixed crosses 7%, is this the real story? Prices fall first time in 10 years.

A few weeks ago, the big news was 6% rates and now everyone suddenly woke up with stocks crashing and yields soaring to new highs and rates jumping again.  What does this mean in the short term for interest rates? Is focusing on the 30 year mortgage rate the correct...
Fannie-Mae-sees-dark-days-ahead-for-the-housing-market;

Fannie-Mae-sees-dark-days-ahead-for-the-housing-market;

It will get much worse for the housing market and the mortgage industry. That’s the takeaway from a group of economists at Fannie Mae who slashed their forecast for 2022 home sales this week. Federal Reserve chairman Powell recently threw even more cold water on their...