Mortgage demand plunges 13.2% to end 2022, are higher interest rates the only culprit

Mortgage demand plunges 13.2% to end 2022, are higher interest rates the only culprit

  The market currently has a fixation on interest rates.  Essentially whatever interest rates do the market reacts accordingly.  For example if rates rise, sales fall and vice versa.  Are rates really the driver of the slow down in real estate sales?  If rates...
Global Property Market Faces $175 Billion Debt Spiral: This cycle is different

Global Property Market Faces $175 Billion Debt Spiral: This cycle is different

I rarely say that Covid caused radical changes in behavior but the commercial property sector is bucking this trend.  This is not because of return to office or lack thereof, but leverage and the central bank.  In every cycle in recent memory as the economy started to...
Commercial property prices slide 13% from peak, biggest since 08, where do prices go from here?

Commercial property prices slide 13% from peak, biggest since 08, where do prices go from here?

US commercial real estate prices have plunged 13% from a peak this year, the biggest drop since the global financial crisis of 2008.  What is causing the decline in commercial property prices.  Is this a blip or will the slide in commercial property prices worsen in...
2023 real estate predictions: Mortgage rates come off their highs. Does a recession happen in 23?

2023 real estate predictions: Mortgage rates come off their highs. Does a recession happen in 23?

I hope everyone is having a happy holiday season.  Before getting into my predictions for next year, there are three crucial factors to discuss that will shape the real estate market in 2023 and beyond: Interest rates, inflation, and consumer sentiment. All three are...
National Association of Realtors predicts rising prices in 2023; fed predicts drop

National Association of Realtors predicts rising prices in 2023; fed predicts drop

In 2023, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects home sales to decline by 7%, while the national median home price will increase by 1% in his recent 2023 market update.  On the flip side the most recent federal reserve economic commentary classifies the current...
Will the golden handcuffs of low rates save real estate in this cycle?

Will the golden handcuffs of low rates save real estate in this cycle?

The prevailing theory is that this real estate cycle will be considerably better than others as so many people locked in rock bottom rates which will serve as “golden handcuffs” and prevent a meaningful increase in inventory.  How accurate is this theory?  What is the...