My recession indicator flashing green: ready for bulls or bears

My recession indicator flashing green: ready for bulls or bears

Are the bulls running or are the bears coming?  Any business media you pick up is harping on the idea of a “recession watch” and the economy is basically coming to an end!  On the flip side my proprietary lending data is giving me a radically different answer.  What...
Year of the elk, are you ready

Year of the elk, are you ready

The above is a picture of my windshield after a chance early morning encounter with an elk; I walked away while my car was basically totaled.  Why is 2025 the year of the elk as elk should typically be the least of your worries?   What does this mean for the upcoming...
Will mortgage rates drop anymore in 24, how about 2025?

Will mortgage rates drop anymore in 24, how about 2025?

  When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%.  At the same time economists had been predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market as the fed has cut rates.  On the other hand, the chart above...
Big real estate rebound for 2025?

Big real estate rebound for 2025?

The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, has released his 2025 and 2026 predictions for residential real estate and they were a huge surprise.  What is Yun predicting for real estate prices, interest rates, and appreciation?  How...
Shortage of homes will keep prices high… think again; Is there really even a shortage?

Shortage of homes will keep prices high… think again; Is there really even a shortage?

I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses.  The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage.  Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...
House prices hit another record, what is now driving house prices?

House prices hit another record, what is now driving house prices?

It is astonishing that house prices continue higher in the face of high interest rates and a slowing economy.  The media keeps pinning the continued appreciation on lack of supply even while listings in places like Denver have jumped 33% year over year.  What is...