One metric for risk is off the charts, impact on real estate

One metric for risk is off the charts, impact on real estate

  It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric.  As a lender I just did a year end analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off the page increasing...
Commercial real estate falls first time since 2011; what is causing the decline?

Commercial real estate falls first time since 2011; what is causing the decline?

US commercial real estate prices have fallen this year for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry.  What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
Soft Landing, Hard landing, does it even matter for real estate?  

Soft Landing, Hard landing, does it even matter for real estate?  

Earlier in the year most economists and myself predicted a recession by now, but the cards have changed with most now predicting the opposite, a soft landing.  What is a soft landing? Is a soft or hard landing better for real estate?  Does it really matter which...
Interest rates not best metric for real estate prices, what is better?

Interest rates not best metric for real estate prices, what is better?

For years interest rates were the number one indicator for real estate prices.  In this cycle interest rates have more than doubled yet real estate prices have barely budged.  If we look back at 2008, the impetus for the large real estate crash was rising interest...
Has the housing market bottomed out?  Will housing prices continue to rise? What does this mean for interest rates

Has the housing market bottomed out?  Will housing prices continue to rise? What does this mean for interest rates

Like most, I have been surprised at the recent upward movement in prices.  Did we just experience the shortest housing cycle ever?  Are housing prices going to continue their recent upward swing?  Why are housing prices now moving higher after a very shallow decline...
The largest buyer of mortgages not buying a soft landing; what are mortgage rates in 2024?

The largest buyer of mortgages not buying a soft landing; what are mortgage rates in 2024?

Both the stock and bond markets are partying like its 99 again. Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of US mortgages, is not buying into the theory that a soft landing is the base case for the economy.  What is Fannie Mae predicting for inflation and in turn interest rates? ...