Pretend and extend, will commercial real estate take down the economy in 25?

Pretend and extend, will commercial real estate take down the economy in 25?

There is a mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”.  In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios.  Banks are in turn pushing out maturity dates hoping for a market bail out....
Is inflation now driving housing prices higher?

Is inflation now driving housing prices higher?

The conventional wisdom is that inflation causes higher interest rates which in turn causes lower housing prices.  We are now seeing an interesting phenomenon where housing prices continue to stay high and in some markets head even higher with interest rates double...
Huge increases in inventory, what does this mean for prices?

Huge increases in inventory, what does this mean for prices?

Even with falling interest rates, inventory has quickly increased. We have gone from a supposed shortage of housing to an inventory surplus in many hot markets.  Home sales in July were at the lowest recorded level.  What is driving the increase in inventory?  Will...
Federal reserve cuts rates, should you rejoice?

Federal reserve cuts rates, should you rejoice?

  The stock market went crazy after the half point cut by the federal reserve?  Should you rejoice like the stock market?  Take a look at the chart above showing all the recessions in the last 30 or so years.  Do you notice a trend?  What is the chart telling us...
House prices falling in 11 markets, how accurate is the data?

House prices falling in 11 markets, how accurate is the data?

According to a new Realtor.com report, among America’s 50 biggest cities, 20 show annual price declines since last year, and the metro with the steepest drop might surprise you.  What markets are dropping the fastest and why?  How accurate is the data they are using? ...
Shortage of homes will keep prices high… think again; Is there really even a shortage?

Shortage of homes will keep prices high… think again; Is there really even a shortage?

I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses.  The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage.  Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...