Clearest sign yet commercial real estate is in big trouble

Clearest sign yet commercial real estate is in big trouble

Foreclosures are surging in a risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the most profound signs yet that turmoil in the commercial property market is just beginning.  Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for...
Is inflation really coming down?

Is inflation really coming down?

We have heard a ton of good news recently regarding inflation.  Inflation has come down dramatically from its peak and the market is pricing in almost a 100% probability of an elusive soft landing.   Is inflation really coming down as fast as the consumer price index...
One metric for risk is off the charts, impact on real estate

One metric for risk is off the charts, impact on real estate

  It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric.  As a lender I just did a year end analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off the page increasing...
Fed reverses course, interest rates fall, my servicing data tells a different story

Fed reverses course, interest rates fall, my servicing data tells a different story

  Although the graph above looks like an old Atari game, it is the Federal reserve dot plot which shows a profound shift.  Ironically, just a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve was touting higher rates for longer.  Now the federal reserve has done a 180 and has...
2024 National Real Estate predictions, will prices continue falling?

2024 National Real Estate predictions, will prices continue falling?

Before getting into my predictions, the chart above is indicative of the mixed signals in the economy. Prices are rising on cardboard due to increased consumer demand. How is demand for cardboard rising if consumer spending is slowing along with inflation?  The answer...
Commercial real estate falls first time since 2011; what is causing the decline?

Commercial real estate falls first time since 2011; what is causing the decline?

US commercial real estate prices have fallen this year for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry.  What property types are declining? (hint not just office...