Pretend and extend, will commercial real estate take down the economy in 25?

Pretend and extend, will commercial real estate take down the economy in 25?

There is a mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”.  In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios.  Banks are in turn pushing out maturity dates hoping for a market bail out....
Inflation cools in June, what about interest rates and house prices?

Inflation cools in June, what about interest rates and house prices?

When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%.  At the same time June showed the first real slowdown in inflation in the last year.  The stock market soared on the slowdown in inflation while the federal reserve took a much more...
Senate calls for Fed to lower rates; will the fed oblige?

Senate calls for Fed to lower rates; will the fed oblige?

  The market currently has a fixation on interest rates.  Senators are now jumping on the bandwagon pushing the federal reserve to “immediately” cut rates to help the real estate market and affordability.  Unfortunately, the senators do not fully grasp how...
Clearest sign yet commercial real estate is in big trouble

Clearest sign yet commercial real estate is in big trouble

Foreclosures are surging in a risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the most profound signs yet that turmoil in the commercial property market is just beginning.  Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for...
One metric for risk is off the charts, impact on real estate

One metric for risk is off the charts, impact on real estate

  It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric.  As a lender I just did a year end analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off the page increasing...
2023 and 2024 mortgage rate predictions

2023 and 2024 mortgage rate predictions

In a WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates It has been quite a ride for mortgage rates over the last two years.  As of this writing mortgage rates were around 7.5% (with no points) which is quite...