Pretend and extend, will commercial real estate take down the economy in 25?

Pretend and extend, will commercial real estate take down the economy in 25?

There is a mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”.  In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios.  Banks are in turn pushing out maturity dates hoping for a market bail out....
Federal reserve cuts rates, should you rejoice?

Federal reserve cuts rates, should you rejoice?

  The stock market went crazy after the half point cut by the federal reserve?  Should you rejoice like the stock market?  Take a look at the chart above showing all the recessions in the last 30 or so years.  Do you notice a trend?  What is the chart telling us...
Shortage of homes will keep prices high… think again; Is there really even a shortage?

Shortage of homes will keep prices high… think again; Is there really even a shortage?

I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses.  The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage.  Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...
House prices hit another record, what is now driving house prices?

House prices hit another record, what is now driving house prices?

It is astonishing that house prices continue higher in the face of high interest rates and a slowing economy.  The media keeps pinning the continued appreciation on lack of supply even while listings in places like Denver have jumped 33% year over year.  What is...
Inflation cools in June, what about interest rates and house prices?

Inflation cools in June, what about interest rates and house prices?

When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%.  At the same time June showed the first real slowdown in inflation in the last year.  The stock market soared on the slowdown in inflation while the federal reserve took a much more...
Why are home prices rising while mortgage rates stay high?

Why are home prices rising while mortgage rates stay high?

It is a bit perplexing; mortgage rates are over 7%, well over double their lows, and yet real estate prices are once again heading higher after a minor pullback late last year.  Prices have pivoted from last fall to make a strong comeback and approach new highs.  What...