Why are mortgage rates rising when they should be falling?

Why are mortgage rates rising when they should be falling?

The chart above is very surprising.  When the market is predicting a slowdown or a recession, gold typically rises and treasuries also rise, typically in tandem.  The exact opposite is happening now as bond prices are falling and yields are rapidly increasing in the...
My recession indicator flashing green: ready for bulls or bears

My recession indicator flashing green: ready for bulls or bears

Are the bulls running or are the bears coming?  Any business media you pick up is harping on the idea of a “recession watch” and the economy is basically coming to an end!  On the flip side my proprietary lending data is giving me a radically different answer.  What...
What do Tariffs mean for real estate and interest rates

What do Tariffs mean for real estate and interest rates

  70% of lumber and 30% of drywall comes from Canada which could be subject to tariffs, what does this mean for the average build cost of a house?  What does the chart above have to do with Tariffs?  Will tariffs meaningfully impact real estate build costs and...
Marry, the house, date the rate, ready for a shotgun wedding

Marry, the house, date the rate, ready for a shotgun wedding

  In almost every real estate advertisement I receive, there is a common theme that prospective buyers should not focus on the rate as they will be able to refinance relatively soon at a much lower rate.  How true is this theory?  (hint anyone who bought into...
Closings surge in Q1 what does this mean for the rest of the market

Closings surge in Q1 what does this mean for the rest of the market

Look at the graph above, what has caused my closing to surge in 2025 while overall real estate closing volumes have plummeted?  What does this mean for real estate?  Don’t get me wrong, I like to think the surge in closings is because I’m an amazing lender and a great...
Upper income spending drops, what does this mean for real estate

Upper income spending drops, what does this mean for real estate

Higher income consumers are showing signs of stress.  Look at the chart above, from the peak in 2022 higher end consumers intent to spend has dropped almost 25%.  What does the chart mean for real estate and the general economy?  Why focus on higher end consumers?...