CPI falls, Fed likely done raising

CPI falls, Fed likely done raising

  What does the recent CPI fall  mean for mortgage rates and real estate prices?   A broad slowdown in inflation continued in October, likely ending the Federal Reserve’s historic interest rate increases. The slowdown came below most median estimates and the...
Job gains shatter expectation; impact on real estate

Job gains shatter expectation; impact on real estate

The economists forecasting the jobs data missed big time, with the recent jobs report almost double their predictions.  Why is job growth still surging while interest rates hit 20 year highs.  What does this mean for future interest rate increases?  Does this change...
16 percent drop in Luxury spending, I created a model to predict when real estate prices will fall.

16 percent drop in Luxury spending, I created a model to predict when real estate prices will fall.

In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases.  This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices.  Currently we are seeing a resounding change in luxury spending, does this mean luxury...
Soft Landing, Hard landing, does it even matter for real estate?  

Soft Landing, Hard landing, does it even matter for real estate?  

Earlier in the year most economists and myself predicted a recession by now, but the cards have changed with most now predicting the opposite, a soft landing.  What is a soft landing? Is a soft or hard landing better for real estate?  Does it really matter which...
4 banks fail, Close to 190 banks could collapse, according to study.

4 banks fail, Close to 190 banks could collapse, according to study.

  After the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, a study on the fragility of the U.S. banking system found that 186 more banks are at risk of failure even if only half of their uninsured depositors (uninsured depositors stand to lose a part...
Interest rates not best metric for real estate prices, what is better?

Interest rates not best metric for real estate prices, what is better?

For years interest rates were the number one indicator for real estate prices.  In this cycle interest rates have more than doubled yet real estate prices have barely budged.  If we look back at 2008, the impetus for the large real estate crash was rising interest...