“Our model really works in upmarkets, it's going to work in flat markets, it's going to work in downmarkets,” chief financial officer Carrie Wheeler told analysts just 6 short months ago. Unfortunately today this statement could not be further from the truth. ...
Hard Money Blog
30 year fixed crosses 7%, is this the real story? Prices fall first time in 10 years.
A few weeks ago, the big news was 6% rates and now everyone suddenly woke up with stocks crashing and yields soaring to new highs and rates jumping again. What does this mean in the short term for interest rates? Is focusing on the 30 year mortgage rate the correct...
Fannie-Mae-sees-dark-days-ahead-for-the-housing-market;
It will get much worse for the housing market and the mortgage industry. That’s the takeaway from a group of economists at Fannie Mae who slashed their forecast for 2022 home sales this week. Federal Reserve chairman Powell recently threw even more cold water on their...
Prices fall 6%, closings slip to lowest since 2015, what does this mean for 22-23?
Home values slipped for the second consecutive month as mortgage costs continue to sideline buyers. From June through August, prices usually decline about 2%, but this year they have fallen about 6%. At the same time, mortgage rates hit highs of around 6.4%. ...
Back to office, ready to pick your seat? 3 traits that will identify the winners & losers
First, the pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing the work from home conveniences in the office Unfortunately this could lead to some “interesting” conversations with coworkers. With the back to office trend in full...
Where is inflation heading and why? What does this mean for real estate?
Once again, the recent CPI report came in much higher than expected. Why did the market drastically miss this prediction? I’m not even an economist and figured out months ago inflation would be higher for longer as everything I buy from groceries, dining out,...
Blackstone halts purchases in 38 cities, Ibuyers slam on the brakes
Wow, what a difference a few months makes. Earlier in the summer, basically any property with 4 walls had multiple offers and prices were on a tear. Fast Forward a few months and Blackstone, one of the largest buyers of residential rental homes, is pausing...
Mortgage demand plunges 83%, will we see a rebound in 2023?
The National Association of Realtors predicts sales to rise again throughout 2023. At the same time, demand for mortgage refinances are down 83% from a year ago. Applications for a loan to purchase a home were 18% lower than the same week one year ago. Signed...
10k of student loans forgiven; what does this mean for real estate and mortgage rates?
As of the writing of this article, President’s Biden’s plan is to forgive 10k in student loan per each borrower and further extend the payment pause until year end. How will this forgiveness impact real estate prices, mortgage rates, and prospective purchasers? What...
Do the bears foretell a market crash or a minor correction?
When I looked over my shoulder and saw these two fellows staring at me, it made me wonder if they were trying to tell me something. I definitely got the hint! I don’t think anyone would debate that real estate is now entering a bear market. The million dollar...
Ready for a 30% drop in housing demand? Will tight supply really prop up the market?
The federal reserve did an analysis of what has led to the surge in housing prices and has a conclusive answer; the driver of high prices is not that we don’t have enough houses as the media has been claiming. What is the real culprit behind soaring prices? Is there...
Haircut prices surge, what does this mean for real estate prices?
If you haven’t gotten a haircut in a while, you are in for a surprise. Haircut prices like many other services in the economy are experiencing large increases. What does the increase in haircut prices mean for the economy and in turn real estate? Why are haircuts...
Fed raises rates, mortgage rates drop, stocks jump, technical recession, what happens now
What a week it has been in the economy. The federal reserve is still struggling to contain inflation and as a result increased the fed funds rate .75%. After the announcement stocks roared back in a huge “relief” rally and mortgage rates plummeted. Shortly after,...
Trucking hits the Brakes; what does this mean for real estate?
There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand trucking jobs - known as the spot market - are skidding. Why are trucking rates...
This chart should scare you; is the mortgage market in for a 2008 wreck; average down not even close to 20%
The federal government in their quest to shore up the mortgage market in 2008 has created some new risks to the housing market. Non bank lenders now make up 74% of the origination volume with only 3 banks even making the list. What does this mean for the mortgage...
A “reckoning” is due. Atlanta overvalued by 58%, Denver by 39%
“A reckoning is due. Home prices and rents can’t separate as significantly as they have from their long-term fundamental trends without major issues arising in the marketplace,” said Ken Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University, in an analysis. “Few...
Commercial property sales plunge 16%, what are the bright spots?
Commercial real estate is showing the first signs of cooling in more than a year, disrupted by rising interest rates that are already causing some deals to collapse. What is causing the quick change in fortunes in commercial real estate? How will the recent fed...
Rates cross 6%, what can the 90s tell us about the next real estate cycle?
Most economists are convinced that there will be a recession soon, although nobody knows whether it is 3,6 or 12 months away. The good news is that this recession should not be a repeat of 2008. Which prior cycle will the next recession likely represent? Will it...
Fed hits brakes hard, largest increase since 94, Mortgage rates surge 6.3%, not all real estate is impacted equally
All I can say is wow. On a dime, the real estate market changed overnight. I was predicting mortgage rates around 6% over the course of the year. The change happened in one day with rates easily cresting 6.3%! What does this big surge in interest rates mean to real...
US housing prices surge as high as 35%, will this trend continue?
While in other countries real estate is slowing, home price growth in 20 US cities picked up for the fourth straight month with Tampa, Florida, showing the biggest gains. March's reading was the highest year-over-year price change in more than 35 years of data, with...
Prices drop 6%, what comes next? Are you ready for a real estate reset?
One of the world’s bubbliest real estate housing markets is tilting from sellers to buyers with dizzying speed. Canadian home prices fell for the first time in two years as a rapid rise in interest rates looks set to threaten one of the world’s hottest housing...
Foreclosure activity on the rise: Where are the highest concentrations?
ATTOM’s just released January 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report shows there were a total of 23,204 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings reported in January 2022. That figure is up 29 percent from December 2021 and 139 percent from January 2021. Will we see a...
Inflation slows. Will mortgage rates stabilize or head higher? What does this mean for real estate prices?
Where mortgage rates are heading seems to be the biggest question on everyone’s mind in real estate. As of this writing rates were around 5.821% which is substantially higher than any economists had predicted even a few months ago. What is causing the jump in...
Fed makes colossal mistake. Labor productivity plummets. Are you ready for 6?
The Federal Reserve just raised interest rates .5% as expected. The market originally rallied and then plummeted 5% the next day. The fed made a colossal error and the stock and bond markets are not buying their guidance. What did the fed say at the meeting that...
Ibuyers get crushed, Opendoor plunges
“Our model really works in upmarkets, it's going to work in flat markets, it's going to work in downmarkets,” chief financial officer Carrie Wheeler told analysts just 6 short months ago. Unfortunately today this statement could not be further from the truth. ...
30 year fixed crosses 7%, is this the real story? Prices fall first time in 10 years.
A few weeks ago, the big news was 6% rates and now everyone suddenly woke up with stocks crashing and yields soaring to new highs and rates jumping again. What does this mean in the short term for interest rates? Is focusing on the 30 year mortgage rate the correct...
Fannie-Mae-sees-dark-days-ahead-for-the-housing-market;
It will get much worse for the housing market and the mortgage industry. That’s the takeaway from a group of economists at Fannie Mae who slashed their forecast for 2022 home sales this week. Federal Reserve chairman Powell recently threw even more cold water on their...
Prices fall 6%, closings slip to lowest since 2015, what does this mean for 22-23?
Home values slipped for the second consecutive month as mortgage costs continue to sideline buyers. From June through August, prices usually decline about 2%, but this year they have fallen about 6%. At the same time, mortgage rates hit highs of around 6.4%. ...
Back to office, ready to pick your seat? 3 traits that will identify the winners & losers
First, the pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing the work from home conveniences in the office Unfortunately this could lead to some “interesting” conversations with coworkers. With the back to office trend in full...
Where is inflation heading and why? What does this mean for real estate?
Once again, the recent CPI report came in much higher than expected. Why did the market drastically miss this prediction? I’m not even an economist and figured out months ago inflation would be higher for longer as everything I buy from groceries, dining out,...
Blackstone halts purchases in 38 cities, Ibuyers slam on the brakes
Wow, what a difference a few months makes. Earlier in the summer, basically any property with 4 walls had multiple offers and prices were on a tear. Fast Forward a few months and Blackstone, one of the largest buyers of residential rental homes, is pausing...
Mortgage demand plunges 83%, will we see a rebound in 2023?
The National Association of Realtors predicts sales to rise again throughout 2023. At the same time, demand for mortgage refinances are down 83% from a year ago. Applications for a loan to purchase a home were 18% lower than the same week one year ago. Signed...
10k of student loans forgiven; what does this mean for real estate and mortgage rates?
As of the writing of this article, President’s Biden’s plan is to forgive 10k in student loan per each borrower and further extend the payment pause until year end. How will this forgiveness impact real estate prices, mortgage rates, and prospective purchasers? What...
Do the bears foretell a market crash or a minor correction?
When I looked over my shoulder and saw these two fellows staring at me, it made me wonder if they were trying to tell me something. I definitely got the hint! I don’t think anyone would debate that real estate is now entering a bear market. The million dollar...
Ready for a 30% drop in housing demand? Will tight supply really prop up the market?
The federal reserve did an analysis of what has led to the surge in housing prices and has a conclusive answer; the driver of high prices is not that we don’t have enough houses as the media has been claiming. What is the real culprit behind soaring prices? Is there...
Haircut prices surge, what does this mean for real estate prices?
If you haven’t gotten a haircut in a while, you are in for a surprise. Haircut prices like many other services in the economy are experiencing large increases. What does the increase in haircut prices mean for the economy and in turn real estate? Why are haircuts...
Fed raises rates, mortgage rates drop, stocks jump, technical recession, what happens now
What a week it has been in the economy. The federal reserve is still struggling to contain inflation and as a result increased the fed funds rate .75%. After the announcement stocks roared back in a huge “relief” rally and mortgage rates plummeted. Shortly after,...
Trucking hits the Brakes; what does this mean for real estate?
There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand trucking jobs - known as the spot market - are skidding. Why are trucking rates...
This chart should scare you; is the mortgage market in for a 2008 wreck; average down not even close to 20%
The federal government in their quest to shore up the mortgage market in 2008 has created some new risks to the housing market. Non bank lenders now make up 74% of the origination volume with only 3 banks even making the list. What does this mean for the mortgage...
A “reckoning” is due. Atlanta overvalued by 58%, Denver by 39%
“A reckoning is due. Home prices and rents can’t separate as significantly as they have from their long-term fundamental trends without major issues arising in the marketplace,” said Ken Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University, in an analysis. “Few...
Commercial property sales plunge 16%, what are the bright spots?
Commercial real estate is showing the first signs of cooling in more than a year, disrupted by rising interest rates that are already causing some deals to collapse. What is causing the quick change in fortunes in commercial real estate? How will the recent fed...
Rates cross 6%, what can the 90s tell us about the next real estate cycle?
Most economists are convinced that there will be a recession soon, although nobody knows whether it is 3,6 or 12 months away. The good news is that this recession should not be a repeat of 2008. Which prior cycle will the next recession likely represent? Will it...
Fed hits brakes hard, largest increase since 94, Mortgage rates surge 6.3%, not all real estate is impacted equally
All I can say is wow. On a dime, the real estate market changed overnight. I was predicting mortgage rates around 6% over the course of the year. The change happened in one day with rates easily cresting 6.3%! What does this big surge in interest rates mean to real...
US housing prices surge as high as 35%, will this trend continue?
While in other countries real estate is slowing, home price growth in 20 US cities picked up for the fourth straight month with Tampa, Florida, showing the biggest gains. March's reading was the highest year-over-year price change in more than 35 years of data, with...
Prices drop 6%, what comes next? Are you ready for a real estate reset?
One of the world’s bubbliest real estate housing markets is tilting from sellers to buyers with dizzying speed. Canadian home prices fell for the first time in two years as a rapid rise in interest rates looks set to threaten one of the world’s hottest housing...
Foreclosure activity on the rise: Where are the highest concentrations?
ATTOM’s just released January 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report shows there were a total of 23,204 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings reported in January 2022. That figure is up 29 percent from December 2021 and 139 percent from January 2021. Will we see a...
Inflation slows. Will mortgage rates stabilize or head higher? What does this mean for real estate prices?
Where mortgage rates are heading seems to be the biggest question on everyone’s mind in real estate. As of this writing rates were around 5.821% which is substantially higher than any economists had predicted even a few months ago. What is causing the jump in...
Fed makes colossal mistake. Labor productivity plummets. Are you ready for 6?
The Federal Reserve just raised interest rates .5% as expected. The market originally rallied and then plummeted 5% the next day. The fed made a colossal error and the stock and bond markets are not buying their guidance. What did the fed say at the meeting that...