There is a theory that locked in low mortgage rates will force owners to stay in their houses. This has led to a huge shortage of inventory throughout the country. Why is the “lock in effect” starting to wind down? …
We have heard a ton of good news recently regarding inflation. Inflation has come down dramatically from its peak and the market is pricing in almost a 100% probability of an elusive soft landing. Is inflation really coming down as…
Soft Landing base case, impact on real estate Every realtor newsletter I have received predicts an increase in sales and a great real estate market is 2024 due to lower mortgage rates. Will this come to fruition? Will we have…
Is there a new subprime crisis lurking? 10 years ago nightly rentals were a novel concept, fast forward to 2024 and the number of nightly rentals have surged 40%. What does this huge increase in nightly rentals mean for…
Anytime you turn on the news you hear about high house prices and that the culprit is that supply has not kept up with demand. Is supply really the main culprit of housing prices or did something else that…
It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric. As a lender I just did a year end analysis on our portfolio and…
The market keeps predicting a goldilocks scenario with 100% certainty where inflation falls without much if any impact on residential real estate. The “soft landing” will occur at the same time interest rates have skyrocketed and supposedly the…
There has been a ton of talk regarding the lawsuits against the National Association of realtors, but from a practical perspective what does this mean for the market? Will buyer’s agent commissions be eliminated? One realtor association is not…
Although the graph above looks like an old Atari game, it is the Federal reserve dot plot which shows a profound shift. Ironically, just a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve was touting higher rates for longer. Now the…
Before getting into my predictions, the chart above is indicative of the mixed signals in the economy. Prices are rising on cardboard due to increased consumer demand. How is demand for cardboard rising if consumer spending is slowing along with…