The National Association of Business economists (NABE), the premier professional association for business economists counting Alan Greenspan as their past president, just released their business outlook predictions placing the odds of a recession in the next two years...
The federal reserve cut rates by a quarter percent at their recent meeting. This is the first cut since 2008. A rate cut now is a bit peculiar as the economy is doing quite well with inflation low, unemployment at record lows, and the stock market at record...
Recently the news has been overwhelming on the China trade war. Last week there was a trade meeting surrounded by fanfare, then there were the tweets from the president announcing more tariffs. The US markets plunged losing 2% in one day and bonds gained. What is...
Fitch Ratings, one of the big three rating services (the other two are Moody’s and Standard and Poors) announced big changes to their pricing models that rates mortgage securities. What is changing? Why is this change so impactful? Why will commercial and...
It was only a matter of time before the largest seller of almost anything entered the real estate market. Amazon announced it’s new program, Turnkey. This program partners with Realogy (owner of Sothebys, Coldwell Banker, etc..) to funnel potential buyers to...
Cities across the country are now coming to terms with the impacts of nightly rentals as primary residents demand action. Before now nightly rentals have been the wild west of regulation, but the tide is starting to change quickly. Denver is leading the way as the...
I took the pic after the 4th outside of Breckenridge, CO (has nothing to do with the article, but thought you would enjoy). Last week the US June jobs report was released that toppled all expectations. After a week May report the job numbers in June did not disappoint...
If you have closed any real estate loan since 2003, you have over a 25% chance you were impacted. First American, the second largest title insurance company in the United States handling over 26% of all closings, announced a data breach that exceeds anything we have...
I wanted to wish each of you a Happy 4th of July. I know the picture above is not what you would expect from a 4th of July e-mail. It is a picture of my windshield after a chance encounter. I’ve known many of you as a friend, client, or peer for the past 20 years. ...
I’ve been hearing rumblings of this suit for months and I’m usually skeptical that lawsuits will totally alter an industry but the recent suit against the National Association of realtors, various multiple listing services, and many large real estate brokerages could...
The economic news has been wild recently with GDP soaring, consumer confidence down, and the federal reserve holding monetary policy (interest rates) steady. It is challenging to decipher what is actually going on with the economy with so many mixed messages. With...
We keep hearing that the spring real estate season is just around the corner, yet the April housing numbers came out showing a 4.4% decline from 2018 and continuing a downward trend of declining sales for the 14th straight month. What is driving this trend? What are...
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently announced that inflation is transitory. Sound familiar? Janet Yellen, the prior fed chair, used this same term 2017 and 2018. Seems like we are in an extended “transit”. Why? Are we headed for the next...
Recently the news has been overwhelming. Originally there was a deal with China then there wasn’t; now China is referring to the trade differences as a trade war. The US markets sold off and then they recovered then sold off again. What is going on? Why are we...
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Cool with the smallest gain since 2012. At the same time mortgage rates have dropped off their highs by 20% to around 4% for a 30-year mortgage. Why are lower mortgage rates not spurring more demand and helping home prices? Why is...
I’ve mentioned many times that house flipping is getting a little “long in the tooth”. This week I was featured in BusinessWeek/Bloomberg on this topic ( great article here is the link in case you missed it). Nationwide flipping has grown exponentially....
The National Association of Realtors came out with their 2019 forecast saying: “the economy is "good." And noted that we have low unemployment, record high job openings, historically low jobless claims, job additions for eight straight years and wages beginning to...
GDP numbers came in great far exceeding expectations at 3.2%. President Trump tweets “we knocked it out of the park”. At the same time inflation remains low/nonexistent which has enabled mortgage rates to fall over 1%. Even with all this good news, home sales...
We are well into 2019 and recession risks seems to have faded into the rear view mirror. Is this a facade? Are we out of the woods yet? What changed? The biggest wildcard going into 2019 was the pace and number of increases from the federal reserve. What has...
Recently zestimates have been on an upward trajectory, far outpacing typical gains in the market (the graph above shows a 50% increase in two years). Why is the zestimate suddenly increasing? Why is it increasing so rapidly? Is the zestimate really the market value? ...
Credit scores have been skyrocketing recently. Is this a good thing? Have 15 million consumer’s credit habits changed drastically in the last 10 years? What are the risks from “grade inflation” of credit scores? Why are scores rising so rapidly? How does this...
Last week, I woke up, checked my phone only to see it blowing up with alerts. I was getting alerts about random charges that were not mine from my credit card. Not the best way to wake up, but not surprising since it has been about 6 months since the largest hack in...
The Federal housing administration over the last several years has been quietly easing the lending standards to increase home ownership. Montgomery, the director of the FHA, did an abrupt change this month tightening standards “to maintain a better balance of...
The Yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007! What does this mean and why is this so important for real estate? Can the animals predict our next “storm”? Should we all be listening to our “primal” instincts a bit more? We probably should. I was doing a...
The National Association of Business economists (NABE), the premier professional association for business economists counting Alan Greenspan as their past president, just released their business outlook predictions placing the odds of a recession in the next two years...
The federal reserve cut rates by a quarter percent at their recent meeting. This is the first cut since 2008. A rate cut now is a bit peculiar as the economy is doing quite well with inflation low, unemployment at record lows, and the stock market at record...
Recently the news has been overwhelming on the China trade war. Last week there was a trade meeting surrounded by fanfare, then there were the tweets from the president announcing more tariffs. The US markets plunged losing 2% in one day and bonds gained. What is...
Fitch Ratings, one of the big three rating services (the other two are Moody’s and Standard and Poors) announced big changes to their pricing models that rates mortgage securities. What is changing? Why is this change so impactful? Why will commercial and...
It was only a matter of time before the largest seller of almost anything entered the real estate market. Amazon announced it’s new program, Turnkey. This program partners with Realogy (owner of Sothebys, Coldwell Banker, etc..) to funnel potential buyers to...
Cities across the country are now coming to terms with the impacts of nightly rentals as primary residents demand action. Before now nightly rentals have been the wild west of regulation, but the tide is starting to change quickly. Denver is leading the way as the...
I took the pic after the 4th outside of Breckenridge, CO (has nothing to do with the article, but thought you would enjoy). Last week the US June jobs report was released that toppled all expectations. After a week May report the job numbers in June did not disappoint...
If you have closed any real estate loan since 2003, you have over a 25% chance you were impacted. First American, the second largest title insurance company in the United States handling over 26% of all closings, announced a data breach that exceeds anything we have...
I wanted to wish each of you a Happy 4th of July. I know the picture above is not what you would expect from a 4th of July e-mail. It is a picture of my windshield after a chance encounter. I’ve known many of you as a friend, client, or peer for the past 20 years. ...
I’ve been hearing rumblings of this suit for months and I’m usually skeptical that lawsuits will totally alter an industry but the recent suit against the National Association of realtors, various multiple listing services, and many large real estate brokerages could...
The economic news has been wild recently with GDP soaring, consumer confidence down, and the federal reserve holding monetary policy (interest rates) steady. It is challenging to decipher what is actually going on with the economy with so many mixed messages. With...
We keep hearing that the spring real estate season is just around the corner, yet the April housing numbers came out showing a 4.4% decline from 2018 and continuing a downward trend of declining sales for the 14th straight month. What is driving this trend? What are...
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently announced that inflation is transitory. Sound familiar? Janet Yellen, the prior fed chair, used this same term 2017 and 2018. Seems like we are in an extended “transit”. Why? Are we headed for the next...
Recently the news has been overwhelming. Originally there was a deal with China then there wasn’t; now China is referring to the trade differences as a trade war. The US markets sold off and then they recovered then sold off again. What is going on? Why are we...
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Cool with the smallest gain since 2012. At the same time mortgage rates have dropped off their highs by 20% to around 4% for a 30-year mortgage. Why are lower mortgage rates not spurring more demand and helping home prices? Why is...
I’ve mentioned many times that house flipping is getting a little “long in the tooth”. This week I was featured in BusinessWeek/Bloomberg on this topic ( great article here is the link in case you missed it). Nationwide flipping has grown exponentially....
The National Association of Realtors came out with their 2019 forecast saying: “the economy is "good." And noted that we have low unemployment, record high job openings, historically low jobless claims, job additions for eight straight years and wages beginning to...
GDP numbers came in great far exceeding expectations at 3.2%. President Trump tweets “we knocked it out of the park”. At the same time inflation remains low/nonexistent which has enabled mortgage rates to fall over 1%. Even with all this good news, home sales...
We are well into 2019 and recession risks seems to have faded into the rear view mirror. Is this a facade? Are we out of the woods yet? What changed? The biggest wildcard going into 2019 was the pace and number of increases from the federal reserve. What has...
Recently zestimates have been on an upward trajectory, far outpacing typical gains in the market (the graph above shows a 50% increase in two years). Why is the zestimate suddenly increasing? Why is it increasing so rapidly? Is the zestimate really the market value? ...
Credit scores have been skyrocketing recently. Is this a good thing? Have 15 million consumer’s credit habits changed drastically in the last 10 years? What are the risks from “grade inflation” of credit scores? Why are scores rising so rapidly? How does this...
Last week, I woke up, checked my phone only to see it blowing up with alerts. I was getting alerts about random charges that were not mine from my credit card. Not the best way to wake up, but not surprising since it has been about 6 months since the largest hack in...
The Federal housing administration over the last several years has been quietly easing the lending standards to increase home ownership. Montgomery, the director of the FHA, did an abrupt change this month tightening standards “to maintain a better balance of...
The Yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007! What does this mean and why is this so important for real estate? Can the animals predict our next “storm”? Should we all be listening to our “primal” instincts a bit more? We probably should. I was doing a...
