Mortgage rates just blew through another record with the 30-year fixed rate dropping to 2.75%. If you have been watching the mortgage market, your head is likely spinning. How can mortgage rates go this low? Where do we go from here? How will the next president...
Hard Money Blog
Yellen appointed to the Treasury, impact on real estate
President-elect Joe Biden nominated former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, the prior head of the Federal Reserve, to become the next Treasury secretary. The “market” loved the pick, should you? What does a Yellen pick for treasury mean for interest rates? ...
Will ski and resort real estate crash once the pandemic subsides? What unique metric should you watch?
Real estate in Colorado ski towns and resort communities throughout the country has been off the charts (do you know which CO resort I took this pic at?). The data is staggering in three months from June through August, the median home price in Aspen for a...
Year of the mountain lion, brace for a wild ride
First, I hope each of you and your families had a relaxing and safe Thanksgiving in light of everything going on. Every Thanksgiving I do a long run to commemorate the holiday. This year’s run was a big wake up. I quickly realized this run was a bit different than...
Happy Thanksgiving, how do you lose a $280 million dollar gem?
What a wild year we have had. First, I wanted to wish each of you and your families a Safe, Healthy, and Happy Thanksgiving Holiday in light of everything going on. As you sit around the table, I wanted to provide a little conversation starter. A gentleman that...
841 billion in forbearance, who will be left holding the bag? Will 2020 be a 2008 repeat?
Almost 10% of all government sponsored mortgages entered mortgage forbearance which accounts for almost 841 billion dollars in loans. 4 in 5 workers say they live paycheck to paycheck, with around 30 million people unemployed, the numbers could be daunting. Yet the...
Covid Vaccine, impact on real estate, biggest real estate risk on the horizon
Pfizer announced that their Covid vaccine in trials was 90% effective at preventing infection. The stock market took off and traders began reshuffling their pandemic bets with Zoom down 20% and Disney, hotels, and cruise operators up substantially. Will there be a...
What does the election mean for real estate? 5 impacts
The pic above has nothing to do with the election, but this bear was about 10 feet from me when I was doing a zoom call on the back deck. I didn't notice him until the meeting participants eyes got big as he walked up behind me. Talk about an interesting coworker...
Commercial just getting started, 48% drop in value
It is ironic in 2007 and 2008, I was asked by our accountant to value properties and loans on our books due to the last cycle. I told her I had no clue, there were too many unknowns. Commercial real estate is starting the same cycle that residential real estate saw...
Wall street the new landlord: one in ten properties
We are seeing interesting economic times; throughout the economy there is huge consolidation within industries as the big get even bigger. Real estate is following a similar trajectory to big technology companies. What is causing the huge changes in real estate? ...
Ban on evictions and foreclosures for a year, impact on real estate
New eviction laws that Democratic lawmakers recently passed would prevent landlords from filing evictions for nonpayment for a full year after the bill is passed. It would further prohibit foreclosures over nonpayment over the same period and enact automatic...
2 out of 3 loans approved in 2019 would be turned down today, mortgage lenders tighten the screws
The Urban Institute think tank says nearly two out of three loans made in 2019 would fail to meet at least one of the stricter standards lenders have imposed since March. Banks are tripping over themselves to be the first to hedge against future downside risks and...
Should appraised value be arbitrary? Is location important in value?
There is a new legislative proposal to radically alter the appraisal industry. Should the use of comparables be arbitrary when establishing appraised value? Do appraisers need to better “appreciate” a neighborhood (what does this even mean?) Should an appraiser use...
Large mortgage defaults on the horizon, are you ready for a 100 billion dollar March Madness?
FHA has placed a moratorium on foreclosures from mortgage loan defaults and offered any borrower that requests it an extension to not make payments for a year (HUD). This effectively kicks the can down the road and pushed out any impending actions until March of...
Will interest rates stay low forever? What did the fed just announce?
If you have been tracking interest rates in the mortgage market, your head is likely spinning. Mortgage rates hit a record low of 3% less than a week later rates have risen again. What is causing the drastic swings? Is now the time to lock in or refinance? What did...
Unemployment rate and housing at historic highs; How is this possible? Which will win?
The Coronavirus has created a unique financial situation. Unemployment rates are at record highs, with companies announcing long term downsizing. At the same time residential real estate is hitting new records and continues to increase in the face of the economic...
New gov’t data predicts defaults, Where will the defaults concentrate in one major city?
I wanted to highlight Atlanta, Georgia as it is one of the top ten metro areas in the country, we have an office there, and we are intimately familiar with the real estate market. Furthermore, it is a typical large city and a good indicator for the country as...
The office is going away, Amazon bets you are wrong, 3 changes to office real estate
As I was working from home the other day on the deck, my dogs started barking and I look over my shoulder to see this guy staring at me… I’m looking forward to getting back to the office 😊 Most companies have now realized that they can work as...
Mortgage rates should be lower costing you 60k over the life of your loan
The mortgage market is an interesting animal. Long term mortgage rates traditionally track the 10 year treasury and historically trade in a very narrow band, approximately one percent higher than the 10 year treasuries. This would put mortgages today in the low 2%...
Cap rates sky rocket, who are the winners and losers in commercial real estate?
Commercial property values were recently hitting peaks with investors rushing to invest in high quality commercial real estate as yields on other assets like treasuries continued to languish. Now the tides have turned with some high quality commercial property now...
Home sales drop to 10 year low, Eerie calm settles on housing market, will it last?
When the shutdowns from the pandemic rippled through the economy, I saw statistics that up to a third of all mortgages could end in default. At the same time, home sales of previously owned homes just dropped to a 10 year low. What is going on in the housing...
Mortgage defaults high in the 10 cities; how does your city rank?
Do you know where the next mortgage defaults will occur in your city? What cities and zip codes are most at risk during this recession? In every recession, there are two predictors of default/loss, collateral and equity. What does the data tell us today?...
Biden eliminates 1031 exchange values decline 12% and rents increase 13%
Presidential nominee Biden has rolled out his proposed tax plan with two major pillars that will impact real estate pros. 1) Elimination of the 1031 exchange provision 2) elimination of long term capital gains. These two changes, if passed, will have huge...
Forbearance drives house prices up; no impact on “credit score”, but can’t get credit?
From March 1 through the end of May, Americans deferred debt payments on more than 100 million accounts, according to credit-reporting firm TransUnion, a sign of widespread financial distress. Millions are out of work, yet house prices are increasing in most...
Mortgage rates just set a record low, are we at the bottom? What should you do now?
Mortgage rates just blew through another record with the 30-year fixed rate dropping to 2.75%. If you have been watching the mortgage market, your head is likely spinning. How can mortgage rates go this low? Where do we go from here? How will the next president...
Yellen appointed to the Treasury, impact on real estate
President-elect Joe Biden nominated former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, the prior head of the Federal Reserve, to become the next Treasury secretary. The “market” loved the pick, should you? What does a Yellen pick for treasury mean for interest rates? ...
Will ski and resort real estate crash once the pandemic subsides? What unique metric should you watch?
Real estate in Colorado ski towns and resort communities throughout the country has been off the charts (do you know which CO resort I took this pic at?). The data is staggering in three months from June through August, the median home price in Aspen for a...
Year of the mountain lion, brace for a wild ride
First, I hope each of you and your families had a relaxing and safe Thanksgiving in light of everything going on. Every Thanksgiving I do a long run to commemorate the holiday. This year’s run was a big wake up. I quickly realized this run was a bit different than...
Happy Thanksgiving, how do you lose a $280 million dollar gem?
What a wild year we have had. First, I wanted to wish each of you and your families a Safe, Healthy, and Happy Thanksgiving Holiday in light of everything going on. As you sit around the table, I wanted to provide a little conversation starter. A gentleman that...
841 billion in forbearance, who will be left holding the bag? Will 2020 be a 2008 repeat?
Almost 10% of all government sponsored mortgages entered mortgage forbearance which accounts for almost 841 billion dollars in loans. 4 in 5 workers say they live paycheck to paycheck, with around 30 million people unemployed, the numbers could be daunting. Yet the...
Covid Vaccine, impact on real estate, biggest real estate risk on the horizon
Pfizer announced that their Covid vaccine in trials was 90% effective at preventing infection. The stock market took off and traders began reshuffling their pandemic bets with Zoom down 20% and Disney, hotels, and cruise operators up substantially. Will there be a...
What does the election mean for real estate? 5 impacts
The pic above has nothing to do with the election, but this bear was about 10 feet from me when I was doing a zoom call on the back deck. I didn't notice him until the meeting participants eyes got big as he walked up behind me. Talk about an interesting coworker...
Commercial just getting started, 48% drop in value
It is ironic in 2007 and 2008, I was asked by our accountant to value properties and loans on our books due to the last cycle. I told her I had no clue, there were too many unknowns. Commercial real estate is starting the same cycle that residential real estate saw...
Wall street the new landlord: one in ten properties
We are seeing interesting economic times; throughout the economy there is huge consolidation within industries as the big get even bigger. Real estate is following a similar trajectory to big technology companies. What is causing the huge changes in real estate? ...
Ban on evictions and foreclosures for a year, impact on real estate
New eviction laws that Democratic lawmakers recently passed would prevent landlords from filing evictions for nonpayment for a full year after the bill is passed. It would further prohibit foreclosures over nonpayment over the same period and enact automatic...
2 out of 3 loans approved in 2019 would be turned down today, mortgage lenders tighten the screws
The Urban Institute think tank says nearly two out of three loans made in 2019 would fail to meet at least one of the stricter standards lenders have imposed since March. Banks are tripping over themselves to be the first to hedge against future downside risks and...
Should appraised value be arbitrary? Is location important in value?
There is a new legislative proposal to radically alter the appraisal industry. Should the use of comparables be arbitrary when establishing appraised value? Do appraisers need to better “appreciate” a neighborhood (what does this even mean?) Should an appraiser use...
Large mortgage defaults on the horizon, are you ready for a 100 billion dollar March Madness?
FHA has placed a moratorium on foreclosures from mortgage loan defaults and offered any borrower that requests it an extension to not make payments for a year (HUD). This effectively kicks the can down the road and pushed out any impending actions until March of...
Will interest rates stay low forever? What did the fed just announce?
If you have been tracking interest rates in the mortgage market, your head is likely spinning. Mortgage rates hit a record low of 3% less than a week later rates have risen again. What is causing the drastic swings? Is now the time to lock in or refinance? What did...
Unemployment rate and housing at historic highs; How is this possible? Which will win?
The Coronavirus has created a unique financial situation. Unemployment rates are at record highs, with companies announcing long term downsizing. At the same time residential real estate is hitting new records and continues to increase in the face of the economic...
New gov’t data predicts defaults, Where will the defaults concentrate in one major city?
I wanted to highlight Atlanta, Georgia as it is one of the top ten metro areas in the country, we have an office there, and we are intimately familiar with the real estate market. Furthermore, it is a typical large city and a good indicator for the country as...
The office is going away, Amazon bets you are wrong, 3 changes to office real estate
As I was working from home the other day on the deck, my dogs started barking and I look over my shoulder to see this guy staring at me… I’m looking forward to getting back to the office 😊 Most companies have now realized that they can work as...
Mortgage rates should be lower costing you 60k over the life of your loan
The mortgage market is an interesting animal. Long term mortgage rates traditionally track the 10 year treasury and historically trade in a very narrow band, approximately one percent higher than the 10 year treasuries. This would put mortgages today in the low 2%...
Cap rates sky rocket, who are the winners and losers in commercial real estate?
Commercial property values were recently hitting peaks with investors rushing to invest in high quality commercial real estate as yields on other assets like treasuries continued to languish. Now the tides have turned with some high quality commercial property now...
Home sales drop to 10 year low, Eerie calm settles on housing market, will it last?
When the shutdowns from the pandemic rippled through the economy, I saw statistics that up to a third of all mortgages could end in default. At the same time, home sales of previously owned homes just dropped to a 10 year low. What is going on in the housing...
Mortgage defaults high in the 10 cities; how does your city rank?
Do you know where the next mortgage defaults will occur in your city? What cities and zip codes are most at risk during this recession? In every recession, there are two predictors of default/loss, collateral and equity. What does the data tell us today?...
Biden eliminates 1031 exchange values decline 12% and rents increase 13%
Presidential nominee Biden has rolled out his proposed tax plan with two major pillars that will impact real estate pros. 1) Elimination of the 1031 exchange provision 2) elimination of long term capital gains. These two changes, if passed, will have huge...
Forbearance drives house prices up; no impact on “credit score”, but can’t get credit?
From March 1 through the end of May, Americans deferred debt payments on more than 100 million accounts, according to credit-reporting firm TransUnion, a sign of widespread financial distress. Millions are out of work, yet house prices are increasing in most...