When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists had been predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market as the fed has cut rates. On the other hand, the chart above...
Hard Money Blog
Big real estate rebound for 2025?
The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, has released his 2025 and 2026 predictions for residential real estate and they were a huge surprise. What is Yun predicting for real estate prices, interest rates, and appreciation? How...
Pretend and extend, will commercial real estate take down the economy in 25?
There is a mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. Banks are in turn pushing out maturity dates hoping for a market bail out....
Happy Thanksgiving 2024: year of the Bear
As everyone departs for the Thanksgiving holiday, I wanted to wish you safe travels and a happy holiday season. Although it has been a challenging year for many in real estate due to much higher interest rates than anticipated and much lower sales volumes, there is...
Is inflation now driving housing prices higher?
The conventional wisdom is that inflation causes higher interest rates which in turn causes lower housing prices. We are now seeing an interesting phenomenon where housing prices continue to stay high and in some markets head even higher with interest rates double...
Does the Trump election matter for Real estate; Homes sales lowest since 95
Regardless of how you voted, at the end of the day for real estate in particular, does the election of President Trump radically change the trajectory of real estate? What happens to real estate volumes? Will interest rates rise or fall? What happens to values? Why...
Huge increases in inventory, what does this mean for prices?
Even with falling interest rates, inventory has quickly increased. We have gone from a supposed shortage of housing to an inventory surplus in many hot markets. Home sales in July were at the lowest recorded level. What is driving the increase in inventory? Will...
Amazon Back to office five days a week, ready to pick your seat?
Amazon now requires all employees to be in the office 5 days a week (hopefully you don't get the office above) What does the five days return to office mean for real estate? The pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing...
Federal reserve cuts rates, should you rejoice?
The stock market went crazy after the half point cut by the federal reserve? Should you rejoice like the stock market? Take a look at the chart above showing all the recessions in the last 30 or so years. Do you notice a trend? What is the chart telling us...
House prices falling in 11 markets, how accurate is the data?
According to a new Realtor.com report, among America’s 50 biggest cities, 20 show annual price declines since last year, and the metro with the steepest drop might surprise you. What markets are dropping the fastest and why? How accurate is the data they are using? ...
Phantom debt soars, what does this mean for real estate?
Consumer spending in the world’s largest economy has been so resilient in the face of stubbornly high inflation that economists and traders have had to repeatedly rip up their forecasts for slowing growth and interest-rate cuts. Is Phantom Debt driving consumer...
New plan for government to offer 25k to homebuyers
A new plan unveiled by candidate Harris aims to provide up to 25k to every first time homebuyer for a downpayment. Like many of you when I heard the news, I did a double take. What is in the plan? Will the proposed plan increase or decrease house prices? Who pays...
Fed cuts rates half percentage, Why did mortgage rates rise?
The market was anticipating a much smaller cut by the federal reserve as inflation is still high and employment and spending is holding up. The odds were about 75% for a smaller cut, but the federal reserve definitely surprised with a much larger cut of half a...
New Senate bill penalizes investors buying houses
Vice president Harris announced her support of a recently introduced bill aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that she says is driving up home prices. This new bill is one of the cornerstones of Harris’ housing policy. The Stop Predatory...
Will realtors’ settlement lower home prices?
With the realtor settlement now implemented nationwide, the question now is will a reduction in realtor fees lower house prices? The big premise of the commission lawsuit against the national association of realtors is that high commission fees were one of the...
Fed lowers rates, will mortgage rates rise?
The million dollar question is where do interest rates head from here. The Federal reserve has hinted at more upcoming cuts, what does this mean for mortgage rates? Does the federal reserve actually control mortgage rates? How is the treasury department...
Property Insurance rates set to jump by 50%; why and who pays?
The mortgage industry should be prepared for large increases in insurance premiums up to 50% according to the Situs Whitepaper. Jennifer Rasmussen, one of the reports authors stated that the average homeowner “was not cognizant of the sheer magnitude of these...
What city is now banning Airbnb? Do nightly rentals drive up rents?
Over the years there have been a lot of theories that nightly rentals are increasing long term rents of full-time residents. Recently NY analyzed nightly rentals in various boroughs to calculate the increase in lease rates. This is the first real study I have seen on...
Shortage of homes will keep prices high… think again; Is there really even a shortage?
I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses. The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage. Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...
What is really predicting house prices? What does the stock market reset mean for real estate?
Wow, the last several days have been brutal in the stock market. At the same time interest rates have started to come down and yet sales are still down substantially from last year. For years, myself, and many others have thought that interest rates were the...
Biden/Harris propose national rent control, what does this mean for prices and supply
It is no secret that housing prices and in turn rents have skyrocketed throughout the country. President Biden, announced a major new action to: “ lower housing costs by limiting rent increases”. Essentially the proposal is nationwide rent control. What is in...
Who is better for real estate Harris or Trump ?
Wow, it is amazing how quickly tides have changed. Look at the chart above of the betting market on the next presidential election right after the assassination attempt. Fast forward and another twist happened over the weekend with President Biden stepping...
House prices hit another record, what is now driving house prices?
It is astonishing that house prices continue higher in the face of high interest rates and a slowing economy. The media keeps pinning the continued appreciation on lack of supply even while listings in places like Denver have jumped 33% year over year. What is...
Inflation cools in June, what about interest rates and house prices?
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time June showed the first real slowdown in inflation in the last year. The stock market soared on the slowdown in inflation while the federal reserve took a much more...
Will mortgage rates drop anymore in 24, how about 2025?
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists had been predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market as the fed has cut rates. On the other hand, the chart above...
Big real estate rebound for 2025?
The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, has released his 2025 and 2026 predictions for residential real estate and they were a huge surprise. What is Yun predicting for real estate prices, interest rates, and appreciation? How...
Pretend and extend, will commercial real estate take down the economy in 25?
There is a mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. Banks are in turn pushing out maturity dates hoping for a market bail out....
Happy Thanksgiving 2024: year of the Bear
As everyone departs for the Thanksgiving holiday, I wanted to wish you safe travels and a happy holiday season. Although it has been a challenging year for many in real estate due to much higher interest rates than anticipated and much lower sales volumes, there is...
Is inflation now driving housing prices higher?
The conventional wisdom is that inflation causes higher interest rates which in turn causes lower housing prices. We are now seeing an interesting phenomenon where housing prices continue to stay high and in some markets head even higher with interest rates double...
Does the Trump election matter for Real estate; Homes sales lowest since 95
Regardless of how you voted, at the end of the day for real estate in particular, does the election of President Trump radically change the trajectory of real estate? What happens to real estate volumes? Will interest rates rise or fall? What happens to values? Why...
Huge increases in inventory, what does this mean for prices?
Even with falling interest rates, inventory has quickly increased. We have gone from a supposed shortage of housing to an inventory surplus in many hot markets. Home sales in July were at the lowest recorded level. What is driving the increase in inventory? Will...
Amazon Back to office five days a week, ready to pick your seat?
Amazon now requires all employees to be in the office 5 days a week (hopefully you don't get the office above) What does the five days return to office mean for real estate? The pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing...
Federal reserve cuts rates, should you rejoice?
The stock market went crazy after the half point cut by the federal reserve? Should you rejoice like the stock market? Take a look at the chart above showing all the recessions in the last 30 or so years. Do you notice a trend? What is the chart telling us...
House prices falling in 11 markets, how accurate is the data?
According to a new Realtor.com report, among America’s 50 biggest cities, 20 show annual price declines since last year, and the metro with the steepest drop might surprise you. What markets are dropping the fastest and why? How accurate is the data they are using? ...
Phantom debt soars, what does this mean for real estate?
Consumer spending in the world’s largest economy has been so resilient in the face of stubbornly high inflation that economists and traders have had to repeatedly rip up their forecasts for slowing growth and interest-rate cuts. Is Phantom Debt driving consumer...
New plan for government to offer 25k to homebuyers
A new plan unveiled by candidate Harris aims to provide up to 25k to every first time homebuyer for a downpayment. Like many of you when I heard the news, I did a double take. What is in the plan? Will the proposed plan increase or decrease house prices? Who pays...
Fed cuts rates half percentage, Why did mortgage rates rise?
The market was anticipating a much smaller cut by the federal reserve as inflation is still high and employment and spending is holding up. The odds were about 75% for a smaller cut, but the federal reserve definitely surprised with a much larger cut of half a...
New Senate bill penalizes investors buying houses
Vice president Harris announced her support of a recently introduced bill aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that she says is driving up home prices. This new bill is one of the cornerstones of Harris’ housing policy. The Stop Predatory...
Will realtors’ settlement lower home prices?
With the realtor settlement now implemented nationwide, the question now is will a reduction in realtor fees lower house prices? The big premise of the commission lawsuit against the national association of realtors is that high commission fees were one of the...
Fed lowers rates, will mortgage rates rise?
The million dollar question is where do interest rates head from here. The Federal reserve has hinted at more upcoming cuts, what does this mean for mortgage rates? Does the federal reserve actually control mortgage rates? How is the treasury department...
Property Insurance rates set to jump by 50%; why and who pays?
The mortgage industry should be prepared for large increases in insurance premiums up to 50% according to the Situs Whitepaper. Jennifer Rasmussen, one of the reports authors stated that the average homeowner “was not cognizant of the sheer magnitude of these...
What city is now banning Airbnb? Do nightly rentals drive up rents?
Over the years there have been a lot of theories that nightly rentals are increasing long term rents of full-time residents. Recently NY analyzed nightly rentals in various boroughs to calculate the increase in lease rates. This is the first real study I have seen on...
Shortage of homes will keep prices high… think again; Is there really even a shortage?
I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses. The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage. Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...
What is really predicting house prices? What does the stock market reset mean for real estate?
Wow, the last several days have been brutal in the stock market. At the same time interest rates have started to come down and yet sales are still down substantially from last year. For years, myself, and many others have thought that interest rates were the...
Biden/Harris propose national rent control, what does this mean for prices and supply
It is no secret that housing prices and in turn rents have skyrocketed throughout the country. President Biden, announced a major new action to: “ lower housing costs by limiting rent increases”. Essentially the proposal is nationwide rent control. What is in...
Who is better for real estate Harris or Trump ?
Wow, it is amazing how quickly tides have changed. Look at the chart above of the betting market on the next presidential election right after the assassination attempt. Fast forward and another twist happened over the weekend with President Biden stepping...
House prices hit another record, what is now driving house prices?
It is astonishing that house prices continue higher in the face of high interest rates and a slowing economy. The media keeps pinning the continued appreciation on lack of supply even while listings in places like Denver have jumped 33% year over year. What is...
Inflation cools in June, what about interest rates and house prices?
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time June showed the first real slowdown in inflation in the last year. The stock market soared on the slowdown in inflation while the federal reserve took a much more...